‘If We Had Elections This Sunday, Only Three Parties Could Pass the Threshold’

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  • November 6, 2019
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According to a survey by Socio-Political Field Research Center, 31.8 percent of the society regard economy/unemployment as the primary problem of Turkey while 21.6 percent see the environment of conflict and violence as its secondary problem.

The Socio-Political Field Research Center has shared the results of its research on voting behavior and voter perception on problems in Turkey.

The Center conducted its research between October 29 and November 1 in 21 provinces of Turkey, namely Istanbul, Ankara, Bursa, Konya, Diyarbakir, Izmir, Eskisehir, Mersin, Adana, Urfa, Samsun, Van, Trabzon, Erzurum, Mardin, Adiyaman, Siirt, Mus, BingAll, HakkAri and Kars.

Accordingly, 1,937 participants from these 21 cities responded to face-to-face surveys as part of the research. While 51 percent of the participants were men, the remaining 49 percent were women.

The findings of the research have shown that if we had general elections this Sunday, only three political parties could pass the electoral threshold: The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP).

Some highlights and details from the research are as follows:

Unemployment is the most important problem

* According to 31.8 percent of the participants, the primary problem of Turkey is "economy/unemployment". While 20.1 percent of them think that "Kurdish question" is the country's primary problem, 13.3 percent say that the "Presidential System" is Turkey's most important problem.

* When asked about the secondary, or second most important problem of Turkey, 21.6 percent of the participants answer that it is the "environment of conflict and violence", 16.9 percent say that it is "economy/unemployment" and 9.3 percent "the Syria policy of Turkey".

* While 32.8 percent of AKP voters think that the primary problem of Turkey is "economy/unemployment", 18.3 percent say that it is the "Kurdish question" and 10.8 percent answer "foreign policy".

* As for the voters of main opposition CHP, 31.5 percent say that Turkey's primary problem is "economy/unemployment", 23.4 percent say that it is the "Presidential System" and 8.9 percent say "Kurdish question".

* According to 37.9 percent of HDP voters, "Kurdish question" is the primary problem of Turkey. While 28.1 percent say that its primary problem is "economy/unemployment", 13.8 percent opt for "Presidential System".

Only three parties could pass the threshold

The participants of the survey were also asked "Which political party did you vote for in the general elections on June 24, 2018?".

To this question, 39.5 percent answered the AKP, 24.9 percent said the CHP, 10.5 percent said the HDP and 5.8 percent answered the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). While 5.8 percent indicated that they did not cast votes in the last general elections, 4.1 percent of the participants said that they voted for the IYI Party and 1.4 percent for the Felicity Party (SP).

When they were asked "If we had general elections this Sunday, for which political party would you vote", 34.6 percent said that they would vote for the AKP, 25 percent answered as the CHP and 9.2 percent said the HDP. While 7.7 percent of the participants were "swing voters", 7 percent said that they would vote for the MHP and 4.3 percent for the IYI Party.

3.5 percent of the participants said that they would vote for the party to be established by Ahmet Davutoglu and his team, 2.2 percent opted for the party to be established by Ali Babacan.

When the swing voters are distributed among the parties, the results show that if we had general elections this Sunday, only three parties could pass the threshold. That is, in such a case, the AKP would receive 38.3 percent of the votes, the CHP 27.7 percent of the votes and the HDP 10.3 percent.

While the MHP and IYI Party would receive 7.8 percent and 4.8 percent respectively, the total votes to be received by former AKP politicians Davutoglu and Babacan would account for 6.3 percent.

10 percent of CHP voters are "swing voters"

Answering the same question, 76.2 percent of AKP voters say that if we had general elections on Sudnay, they would vote for the AKP, 7.3 percent for the party of Davutoglu and 6.3 percent for the CHP.

While 80.9 percent of CHP voters indicate that they would vote for the CHP and 2.5 percent for the AKP, 10 percent are "swing voters".

79.3 percent of the HDP voters say that they would vote for the HDP again. While 8.4 percent state that "they would not go to the ballot box", 5.4 percent say that they would vote for the CHP.

While 61.5 percent of the MHP votres say that they would vote for the MHP, 12 percent opt for the AKP and 9.4 percent for the IYI Party.

As for the IYI Party, 68.8 percent say that they would vote for their party, 12.5 percent say that they would prefer the CHP and 6.3 percent the AKP.

While 21.4 percent of SP voters are "swing voters", 42 percent of them say that they would vote for the SP again. The rate of those who say that they would vote for the AKP is 17.9 percent.

Source: English Bianet