Global oil supply down in April with Russian supplies shut in

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  • May 12, 2022
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Global oil supply in April saw its biggest monthly loss since February last year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly oil market report on Thursday.

Supply decreased by 710,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 98.14 million bpd, as Russia shut in nearly 1 million bpd, the IEA said.

"Production from other OPEC+ members continued to disappoint, with total oil output from the bloc down more than 1 million bpd. Libya and Kazakhstan lost more than 400,000 bpd between them due to unplanned closures at export terminals," the report said.

The agency noted the sharp declines widened the shortfall between the bloc's supply versus official output targets.

However, according to the IEA, the overall global decline was partially offset by higher non-OPEC+ supply, which rose by 380,000 bpd, led by strong gains in biofuels and a modest production increase from the US.

Global output set to rise by 3.1 million bpd from May through December

Daily crude oil production of the OPEC group rose to 28.67 million bpd in April, with an increase of 50,000 bpd compared to the previous month.

During this period, OPEC natural gas liquids were recorded as 5.36 million bpd, increasing OPEC's total oil production to 34.03 million bpd last month.

Non-OPEC production saw a decrease of 810,000 bpd to 64.92 million bpd in April.

According to the agency, over time, steadily rising volumes from Middle East OPEC+ and the US along with a slowdown in demand growth are expected to fend off an acute supply deficit amid a worsening Russian supply disruption.

The IEA estimated that excluding Russia, output from the rest of the world is set to rise by 3.1 million bpd from May through December.

IEA revises down oil demand forecast for 2022

The IEA revised down its global oil demand estimates for 2022 by around 10,000 bpd compared to last month's assessment.

Global oil demand is now estimated to reach around 99.4 million bpd in 2022, although the forecast still marks a year-on-year rise of 1.8 million bpd.

The agency said escalating lockdowns across China are driving a dramatic slowdown in the world's second-largest and fastest-growing oil consumer, while price expectations for the rest of the year are increasing as Russia's war on Ukraine shows little sign of easing.

Although, "the impact of these twin crises on oil demand was moderated in the first quarter of the year by the continued strong recovery in oil use in Western countries", the IEA projected that in the fourth quarter of 2022 demand would be 230,000 bpd lower than in the same quarter of last year, as the economy slows and the impacts of higher prices bite.

The IEA also said that as summer driving escalates and jet fuel continues to recover, world oil demand is set to rise by 3.6 million bpd from April to August.

Source: Anadolu Agency